Good news! It’s (a) already back depending on what travel products and region you’re in. Looking (b) very broadly at the collective global travel market, I posit:
- In most key and emerging markets, the domestic travel market will return by Q3 2022. Omicron bumped this over by one quarter which I shared with close contacts before starting this blog.
- I believe the international travel market will start rebounding by Q4 2022.
- I believe business travel will substantively restart in Q1 2023.
The exact answer depends on multiple data points like visa restrictions, travel Covid requirements (passenger Covid-negative tests taken one day or three before the date of travel?), availability of aircraft between cities, and public sentiment on the whole for your specific market and travel product offering.
I further posit:
- Contrary to public sentiment, travel is not plummeting everywhere, as it once was. I see the light at the end of the tunnel.
- Now is the time for travel startups and travel companies to restart from their hibernation. IMHO.
- Travel growth will be less and less affected with each successive variant given “live with Covid strategy”, overall Covid fatigue, growing vaccination rates, the need to travel after years of lockdown, value pricing of travel products, implementing of Covid safety measures and increasingly positive travel sentiment; among other data points.
- Avoid a ‘one size fits all’ approach in this post-Covid world. Take a deep and dispassionate evaluation if and when your past business model still applies. I’ll touch upon this in a separate post.
I cannot predict the future (shocking isn’t it?). All bets are off should a devastatingly destructive new strain affect global travel. I take comfort in knowing this hasn’t been the case given the past variants as of Feb 2022.
I can only suggest what I believe are risk-adjusted projections based on my reading, speaking with contacts around the world, reviewing research reports and papers, and thinking about what trends apply to different markets (the best part of my day job).
In other words, what I would do if I ran a travel company or travel startup, and the advice I’ve given to our investments. The decision is solely yours to make.
PS. Now would be an excellent time to subscribe for future notes, updates and revisions I make along the way.
