Chinese Tourists Aren’t Coming Back to the US Anytime Soon.
I believe the US travel industry (companies, media, prognosticators) is currently spending too much mental energy, attention, opportunity cost and focus on the inbound Chinese traveler market while overlooking opportunities from other lucrative source markets.
Fixating on ‘the Pre-pandemic level return of Chinese Inbound Travelers’ is like a friend who’s separated from his longtime girlfriend that keeps talking about the good old days; hoping and praying they’ll get back together.
I’m afraid, wishing, hoping, and praying isn’t a strategy and as far as I’m concerned it doesn’t matter who separated first and who’s at fault.
Chinese Travelers Aren’t Returning Anytime Soon
I suggest Chinese travelers aren’t coming back to the US for at least 3 more years given the abysmal traveler stats after China opened, the paltry number of flights between the US and China, the glacial pace of US visa issuances in general and for China, the tense and rising political rhetoric and the lack of any ‘light at the end of the road’.
Switching viewpoints, if I was a Chinese citizen, why would I want to come to the US when there’s dozens of other closer, more affordable, and welcoming countries to visit. The numbers speak for themselves.
Chinese Travelers Are Back, Just Not for the US.
Chinese travelers are going elsewhere from new places like Saudi Arabia, Japan and Korea, to perennial favorites like Dubai. Just look at, as I have, to the double-digit year over year growth Asia Countries are experiencing inbound from China.
USA Group Bookings Approved August 1st, 2023 (10 days ago!)
Even if Chinese travelers want to visit the USA, which they don’t, package and tour bookings to the US were approved by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism on August 1st, 2023; 10 days from the time of this post.
Contrast that to the 6-month head start afforded to a host of other countries approved in January 2023 for travel after Feb 6th: Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Laos, UAE, Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Russia, Switzerland, Hungary, New Zealand, Fiji, Cuba, and Argentina.
Pro-Other Source Markets. Not Anti-China.
To be very clear, I’m not Anti-China in any way, I’m Pro-Other Source Markets; purely a dispassionate practical approach rather than an ideological or political one.
I understand why Chinese travelers were important to the US and I understand why Chinese travelers will be important in the future.
Shift Focus Towards Who Is, Can and Wants to Come
Let’s accept reality for what it is. I have no doubt it will change in the future, and let’s promptly focus on who is coming, who can come, and who wants to come in the meantime.
Who Should We Attract
We should attract inbound travelers from countries with growing GDP’s — specifically India, Vietnam, and the Philippines to name a few (by no means an exclusive list) – all of which have 6% GDP grow projected for FY2023.
We should attract inbound travelers from countries with positive consumer sentiment – yes they exist — it’s not gloom and doom everywhere in the world.
Travelers from rapidly growing economies have an open “spenders’ mindset”, one where they look forward to spending on travel, entertainment and experiences knowing they’re secure in their home country, their livelihood, and their future. This cohort is likely to spend, be open to new experiences, be willing to pay for them, to the point of overspending beyond budgets.
Talk to somebody in India or Vietnam and you can feel the optimism and forward momentum. It’s palpable.
Speaking of inbound international travel, nothing is more important at the moment than eliminating visa processing delays across the board and certainly in priority of fastest growing inbound markets.
Each Do Our Part
Every minute we spend historically waxing about the good old days is time spent away from attracting active, viable, inbound travelers.
Let’s do all we can, each in our own way, so new source market travelers visit, experience, spend, build memories, share, and revisit the US.
* I write in August 2023 and reading this in 2026 I strongly suspect will yield a contrasting viewpoint given the ebb and flow of the travel industry.